YOUR BITCOIN. YOUR RETIREMENT.
What would it take to retire?
Build a plan, see the gap, and compare the changes you can make.
A clearer view of your retirement
Start with your holdings and spending goal. You’ll see the income gap, the Bitcoin needed today, and the effect of saving more or retiring later.
Defaults are an example, not a recommendation.
YOUR PLAN
Explore retirement timing
Earliest funded retirement: , under this model and strategy, searching through age 100.
How long could your spending last?
Move the spending slider to explore. The original plan stays unchanged until you apply this amount.
A spending shortfall can happen before your Bitcoin runs out. All results depend on your selected assumptions.
Tap or click the chart to select a year and age. Chart and year readout use future dollars. This what-if preview does not rerun the simulation.
Your income and spending goal
Annual net income and spending · future dollars
What could change your outcome?
Compare one change at a time. Your original inputs stay in place.
How often is the spending goal met?
1,000 simulated paths · same retirement timeline and contributions
Run a simulation to explore uncertain returns.
Orange: median. Blue: 10th and 90th percentiles at each year; these are not individual paths or guaranteed bounds.
Simulation assumptions
Illustrative lognormal annual returns with 65% log-return volatility, independent each year. Results depend on these assumptions, not on a prediction of Bitcoin’s future. A fixed random seed makes comparisons repeatable.
Year-by-year results
Year zero is today. Withdrawals stop at available funds; the shortfall shows unmet spending after tax. All dollar amounts below are future dollars.
| Year / age | Growth | BTC price | BTC left | Portfolio | Contributions | Net income | Spending goal | Shortfall |
|---|
Plan links include your entered financial figures. Share only with people you choose. Saved plans stay in this browser.
Calculation assumptions
Explore the seven original growth paths
These are illustrative rate schedules, not fitted forecasting models. Their historic names were Bullish, Optimistic, Baseline, Conservative, Stock-to-Flow, Log-Curve, and S-Curve. Even M4 assumes 24% initial growth. Compare them with flat and declining scenarios.
The first rate applies to the year after today. After 30 growth years, the final rate is held constant.
| Growth year | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 |
|---|
Understand the assumptions
The plan starts today, then applies monthly growth and purchases before retirement. The first annual withdrawal occurs at retirement. Spending rises with inflation from today, and income summaries convert it back to today’s purchasing power. Contributions stay constant in dollars. Taxes are a simplified percentage of the whole withdrawal; fees, cost basis, other assets, and other income are not modeled.
“Bitcoin needed today” finds the initial holdings that would fund the spending goal with your contributions under the chosen growth path. It uses spending-target withdrawals, even if you select a percentage strategy. “Earliest funded retirement” searches ages through 100 under your selected strategy. These are scenario results, not promises or financial advice.
Read the full methodology →